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10-7-2011

A new report from the European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), confirms that CSP is on course to become competitive with fossil fuel-based electricity sometime between 2020 and 2030 in ‘sun-rich’ countries. Through the integration of thermal storage and fossil fuel hybridisation, EASAC argues that CSP can offer the same grid-services as conventional power plants and help to enable the introduction of high proportions of other ‘fluctuating’ renewable energy technologies.CSP plants generally have low environmental impacts and contribute towards a high share of local value creation.

“This local benefit is more pronounced than for other renewable technologies ... and supports economic development ... creating local jobs, wealth and expertise – making it particularly suitable for the MENA region,” says Prof. Robert Pitz-Paal, Chairman of the EASAC Working Group on Concentrating Solar Power.

Key Trends A clear trend towards systems operating at higher temperatures and efficiencies becoming an important driver for cost-reduction. Due to ongoing competition with PV, systems that include storage or efficient hybridisation schemes are likely to become more important - but their value depends on the specific market. Over 10-15 years, an overall cost-reduction potential of 40% -60% has been identified - half of which is anticipated to result from technology innovation and another half via mass-production and scaling effects.

10-6-2011

Falling module and balance of system (BOS) prices have significantly improved photovoltaic (PV) project internal rates of return (IRR) and led to an explosion in project development activities in China. China grew to 16 GW at the end of October, 2011. Projects in the pipeline are located in 29 Chinese provinces. Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia are the leading provinces in megawatt terms, followed by Sichuan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shaanxi, Tibet and Anhui. These 10 provinces represent 86% of the total pipeline.

195 projects, with a total capacity of over 1.8 GW, will be installed within 2011. That installed capacity in China will closely match the installed capacity in the US this year. Stimulated by the Qinghai 930 program as well as unified national feed-in tariff (FIT) policy, 54% of the capacity in megawatt terms will be located in the northwest region. The top seven project developer groups account for nearly 1 GW of PV demand in 2011, including state-owned enterprises China Power Investment Corporation, China Guodian Corporation, China Huadian Corporation, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Corporation, and China Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection Group. The CHINT Group is the only private enterprise among the top seven developers. “China’s FIT rates—1.15 CNY/kWh in 2011 and 1.0 CNY/kWh for 2012. “Projects entitled to the Golden Sun and Solar Rooftop programs will enjoy the highest IRRs in Q4’11 and 1H’12,” added Lian. “With at least 8 CNY/Wp rebate to system cost approaching 12 CNY/Wp,

09-26-2011

Production Cutbacks Insufficient to Prevent Solar Module Inventory Build Up (Solarbuzz)

Continued solar module overproduction will lead to sustained price pressure across global photovoltaic (PV) markets, already reeling from factory gate prices now down 33% Y/Y, according to conclusions in the latest Solarbuzz Quarterly report .While some manufacturers have started to cut back their production and shipment plans, tier-one Chinese companies have maintained their full year shipment guidance. If manufacturers meet their 2H’11 guidance, global shipments are forecast to exceed end-market demand by 4.4 GW. After taking into account the changing supply mix, crystalline silicon factory-gate module prices are now projected to fall 18% in Q4’11 Q/Q, reflecting both price and supply mix changes. These reductions will also stimulate large cuts in thin film prices in Q4’11. Meanwhile, Q2’11 gross margins for the major cell, wafer and polysilicon manufacturers have already dropped on average by more than 50% compared to the prior quarter. Heading into 2012, the industry is braced for another challenging year. Analysis in Solarbuzz Quarterly shows manufacturers are preparing to raise cell capacity by 50% over 2011 levels, while end-market demand is forecast to increase by less than half that level.

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Industry Links:

Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) USA http://www.seia.org

Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) http://creia.net

Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) Global http://www.gwec.net

International Photovoltaic Industry Association (IPVEA) http://www.ipvea.org

Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA) http://www.jpea.gr.jp

National Database of State Incentives (DSIRE) USA http://www.dsireusa.org/

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) USA http://nrel.gov

Renewable Energy Association (REA) USA http://www.r-e-a-net/

American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) USA http://www.awea.org

European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) EU http://www.epia.org